Willingness to pay to enhance pandemic preparedness in Mauritius.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the determinants of willingness to pay to enhance pandemic preparedness in Mauritius. STUDY DESIGN: A contingent valuation method is used to estimate willingness to pay to pay for enhancing pandemic preparedness using a sample of working people in Mauritius. METHODS: A two-phase decision process analysis is carried out to model the willingness to pay to enhance pandemic preparedness. The first phase is to analyse the respondents' decision of whether or not to pay for enhancing pandemic preparedness using a Probit model. The second phase is to estimate the determinants of the amount of money respondents are willing to pay using a Tobit model. RESULTS: Income earners are willing to pay an average of Rs. 1,900 (approximately USD 50) per annum to enhance pandemic preparedness. 'Perceived Response Efficacy', 'Awareness of the Need and Responsibility for Paying', 'Subjective Obligation to Pay' and the 'Theory of Planned Behaviour' are found to affect both stages of of the decision-making process. Knowledge on COVID-19 is found to have a positive impact on the decision to pay and health responsibility attitude is found to have a negative impact on the amount people are willing to pay. CONCLUSIONS: On average, the government can potentially expect to mobilise an additional Rs. 1,047,470,000 (USD 27,565,000) from taxpayers to spend on enhancing pandemic preparedness in Mauritius. To increase willingness to pay for enhanced pandemic preparedness, the government can focus on improving knowledge on a pandemic, perceived response efficacy and awareness on need and responsibility of paying.

The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa.

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took the world by surprise. Following the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although the spread of COVID-19 is being slowed down by vaccination and other interventions, there is still a need to have a clear understanding of the evolution of the pandemic across countries, states and communities. To this end, there is a need to have a clearer picture of the initial spread of the disease in different regions. In this project, we used a simple SEIR model and a Bayesian inference framework to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) and 9.66 (Mauritius), with a median of 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31-4.12). The estimates provided in this paper will help to inform COVID-19 modeling in the respective countries/regions.

Comparison of Routine Hematology, Coagulation, and Clinical Chemistry Parameters of Cynomolgus Macaques of Mauritius Origin With Cynomolgus Macaques of Cambodia, China, and Vietnam Origin.

Cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) are commonly used in safety assessment and as translational models for drug development. Recent supply chain pressures, exportation bans, and increased demand for drug safety assessment studies exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic have prompted the investigation of utilizing macaques of different geographic origin in preclinical toxicity studies. This study compares routine hematology, coagulation, and clinical chemistry endpoints of 3 distinct subpopulations of mainland Asia origin (Cambodia, China, and Vietnam) with Mauritius origin macaques compiling results of 3,225 animals from 123 regulatory toxicology studies conducted at North American and European Union contract research organization facilities between 2016 and 2019. Results were generally similar amongst the subpopulations compared in this study. Few notable differences in hematology test results and several minor differences in serum biochemistry and coagulation test results were identified when 3 distinct subpopulations of mainland Asia origin macaques were compared with Mauritius origin macaques. Our findings support the use of different origin macaques in drug development programs; however, emphasizes the importance of maintaining consistency in geographic origin of animals within a study.

Re-analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 series using an extended integer-valued time series models: A situational assessment of the COVID-19 in Mauritius.

This paper proposes some high-ordered integer-valued auto-regressive time series process of order p (INAR(p)) with Zero-Inflated and Poisson-mixtures innovation distributions, wherein the predictor functions in these mentioned distributions allow for covariate specification, in particular, time-dependent covariates. The proposed time series structures are tested suitable to model the SARs-CoV-2 series in Mauritius which demonstrates excess zeros and hence significant over-dispersion with non-stationary trend. In addition, the INAR models allow the assessment of possible causes of COVID-19 in Mauritius. The results illustrate that the event of Vaccination and COVID-19 Stringency index are the most influential factors that can reduce the locally acquired COVID-19 cases and ultimately, the associated death cases. Moreover, the INAR(7) with Zero-inflated Negative Binomial innovations provides the best fitting and reliable Root Mean Square Errors, based on some short term forecasts. Undeniably, these information will hugely be useful to Mauritian authorities for implementation of comprehensive policies.

What Do Adolescents Know About One-Health and Zoonotic Risks? A School-Based Survey in Italy, Austria, Germany, Slovenia, Mauritius, and Japan.

More than 60% of the 1,700 infectious diseases that affect human come from animals and zoonotic pandemics, after starting from sporadic phenomena limited to rural areas, have become a global emergency. The repeated and frequent zoonotic outbreaks such as the most recent COVID-19 pandemic can be attributed also to human activities. In particular, the creation of enormous intensive domestic animal farms, the indiscriminate use of antibiotics, the destruction of forests, the consumption of the meat of wild animals and the illegal animal trade are all factors causing the insurgence and the transmission of zoonotic diseases from animals to humans. The purpose of this study was to explore the knowledge of the One Health concept including the zoonotic risk potentially derived from illegally traded pet animals and wildlife among adolescents in 6 different countries (Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Germany, Mauritius, and Japan). A representative sample of 656 students was recruited and all participants took an anonymous questionnaire. Data were analyzed by ANOVAs to estimate the prevalence of correct health prevention behaviors and to identify the influential factors for these behaviors. After two theoretical-practical lectures, the same anonymous questionnaire was administered for the second time in order to assess the efficacy of the program. The proportion of students who did not know that many diseases affecting humans come from animals is 28.96% while 32.16% of them did not know what a zoonosis is. The circularity of the One Health concept related to the transmission of diseases from animals to humans and vice-versa is not understood from a large prevalence of the adolescents with 31.40 and 59.91% of wrong responses, respectively. Furthermore, rabies is not considered as a dangerous disease by 23.02% of the adolescents. After two theoretical-practical classroom sessions, the correct answers improved to 21.92% according to the different question. More than a third of the student cohort investigated showed a profound ignorance of the zoonotic risks and a poor understanding of the One Health concept. The authors believe that the teaching of health prevention with a One Health approach and a practical training should be included in every school curriculum.

Lived experiences of older adults living in the community during the COVID-19 lockdown - The case of mauritius.

Adoption of strict social distancing and sanitary measures were inevitable in the attempt to thwart the spread of the Covid-19 virus. These measures, however, came at a cost for older adults who faced major mental health issues because of social isolation. The impact of social isolation remains well documented in the wake of the pandemic. This paper explored the lived experiences of older adults living in the community during the Covid-19 sanitary lockdown in the small-island state of Mauritius. As a small-island state with family structures that still skew towards extended or modified extended families, it was interesting to explore whether older adults would be reporting feelings of social isolation as was being reported elsewhere. This study utilized a qualitative approach using a lifeworld hermeneutical approach with 15 older adult participants, recruited through convenience and snowball sampling, in the community. Data were collected using a narrative approach supplemented by an interview guide. Thematic analysis was used to identify themes from transcribed and translated data. Six themes were discovered: Fears of the virus and fear of deprivation; Reliving and recreating bonds; Active contribution to family life; Being and feeling valued within the family; Rediscovering family time and family moments; and Fear of going back to 'normal'. The study revealed positive experiences of the lockdown period characterised by an increase bonding in the family, deepening of familial bond, and increased value despite an initial apprehension of the lockdown. A renewed sense of purpose as well as deepening of bonds was reported by older adults. Some limitations in relation to data trustworthiness and respondents bias, however, could not be avoided since the study was carried out during sanitary lockdown period. The feelings of social isolation and depression reported by older adults who lived alone were not seen in this study, suggesting that the family structure may have a role to play in mitigating these effects. There would also be a need to explore similar small-island states or similar cultures where the effects of sanitary lockdowns may be different from current literature.

The Discounted Money Value of Human Life Losses Associated With COVID-19 in Mauritius.

Background: Mauritius along with other 12 countries in the African Region was identified at the early start of the COVID-19 pandemic as being at high risk due to high volume of international travel, high prevalence of non-communicable diseases and co-morbidities, high population density and significant share of population over 60 years (16%). The objective of this study was to estimate the total discounted money value of human life losses (TDMVCLMAURITIUS ) associated with COVID-19 in Mauritius. Methods: The human capital approach (HCA) was used to estimate the TDMVCLMAURITIUS of the 10 human life losses linked with COVID-19 in Mauritius as of 16 October 2020. The HCA model was estimated with the national life expectancy of 75.51 years and a discount rate of 3%. A sensitivity analysis was performed assuming (a) 5 and 10% discount rates, and (b) the average world life expectancy of 73.2 years, and the world highest life expectancy of 88.17 years. Results: The money value of human lives lost to COVID-19, at a discounted rate of 3%, had an estimated TDMVCLMAURITIUS of Int$ 3,120,689, and an average of Int$ 312,069 per human life lost. Approximately 74% of the TDMVCLMAURITIUS accrued to persons aged between 20 and 59 years. Reanalysis of the model with 5 and 10% discount rates, holding national life expectancy constant, reduced the TDMVCLMAURITIUS by 19.0 and 45.5%, respectively. Application of the average world life expectancy at 3% discount rate reduced TDMVCLMAURITIUS by 13%; and use of the world highest life expectancy at 3% discount rate increased TDMVCLMAURITIUS by 50%. Conclusions: The average discounted money value per human life loss associated with COVID-19 is 12-fold the per capita GDP for Mauritius. All measures implemented to prevent widespread community transmission of COVID-19 may have saved the country 837 human lives worth Int$258,080,991. This evidence, conjointly with human rights arguments, calls for increased investments to bridge the existing gaps for achieving universal health coverage by 2030.

Improving public hospital efficiency and fiscal space implications: the case of Mauritius.

BACKGROUND: General Government Health Expenditure (GGHE) in Mauritius accounted for only 10% of General Government Expenditure for the fiscal year 2018. This is less than the pledge taken under the Abuja 2001 Declaration to allocate at least 15% of national budget to the health sector. The latest National Health Accounts also urged for an expansion in the fiscal space for health. As public hospitals in Mauritius absorb 70% of GGHE, maximising returns of hospitals is essential to achieve Universal Health Coverage. More so, as Mauritius is bracing for its worst recession in 40 years in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic public health financing will be heavily impacted. A thorough assessment of hospital efficiency and its implications on effective public health financing and fiscal space creation is, therefore, vital to inform ongoing health reform agenda. OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to examine the trend in hospital technical efficiency over the period 2001-2017, to measure the elasticity of hospital output to changes in inputs variables and to assess the impact of improved hospital technical efficiency in terms of fiscal space creation. METHODS: Annual health statistics released by the Ministry of Health and Wellness and national budget of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development were the principal sources of data. Applying Stochastic Frontier Analysis, technical efficiency of public regional hospitals was estimated under Cobb-Douglas, Translog and Multi-output distance functions, using STATA 11. Hospital beds, doctors, nurses and non-medical staff were used as input variables. Output variable combined inpatients and outpatients seen at Accident Emergency, Sorted and Unsorted departments. Efficiency scores were used to determine potential efficiency savings and fiscal space creation. FINDINGS: Mean technical efficiency scores, using the Cobb Douglas, Translog and Multi-output functions, were estimated at 0.83, 0.84 and 0.89, respectively. Nurses and beds are the most important factors in hospital production, as a 1% increase in the number of beds and nurses, result in an increase in hospital outputs by 0.73 and 0.51%, respectively. If hospitals are to increase their inputs by 1%, their outputs will increase by 1.16%. Hospital output process has an increasing return to scale. With technical efficiencies improving to scores of 0.95 and 1.0 in 2021-2022, potential savings and fiscal space creation at hospital level, would amount to MUR 633 million (US$ 16.2 million) and MUR 1161 million (US$ 29.6 million), respectively. CONCLUSION: Fiscal space creation through full technical efficiency, is estimated to represent 8.9 and 9.2% of GGHE in fiscal year 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, respectively. This will allow without any restrictions the funding of the national response for HIV, vaccine preventable diseases as well as building a resilient health system to mitigate impact of emerging infectious diseases as experienced with COVID-19.

Studying the trend of the novel coronavirus series in Mauritius and its implications.

Mauritius stands as one of the few countries in the world to have controlled the current pandemic, the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) to a significant extent in a relatively short lapse of time. Owing to uncertainties and crisis amid the pandemic, as an emergency announcement, the World Health Organization (WHO) solicits the help of health authorities, especially, researchers to conduct in-depth research on the evolution and treatment of COVID-19. This paper proposes an integer-valued time series model to analyze the series of COVID-19 cases in Mauritius wherein the corresponding innovation term accommodates for covariate specification. In this set-up, sanitary curfew followed by sanitization and sensitization campaigns, time factor and safe shopping guidelines have been tested as the most significant variables, unlike climatic conditions. The over-dispersion estimates and the serial auto-correlation parameter are also statistically significant. This study also confirms the presence of some unobservable effects like the pathological genesis of the novel coronavirus and environmental factors which contribute to rapid propagation of the zoonotic virus in the community. Based on the proposed COM-Poisson mixture models, we could predict the number of COVID-19 cases in Mauritius. The forecasting results provide satisfactory mean squared errors. Such findings will subsequently encourage the policymakers to implement strict precautionary measures in terms of constant upgrading of the current health care and wellness system and re-enforcement of sanitary obligations.